في عالم إدارة المشاريع، يكون عدم اليقين رفيقًا دائمًا. من توفر الموارد غير المتوقع إلى التأخيرات غير المتوقعة، يمكن أن تؤثر العديد من العوامل على الجدول الزمني للمشروع. وهنا يأتي دور تحليل PERT، وهي أداة قوية لتخطيط المشاريع وجدولها الزمني.
ما هو تحليل PERT؟
PERT (تقنية تقييم البرنامج ومراجعة البرنامج) هي طريقة تستخدم نهجًا احتماليًا لتقدير مدة أنشطة المشروع. بدلاً من الاعتماد على تقدير واحد، يدمج PERT ثلاثة سيناريوهات لمراعاة التباين المتأصل:
كيف يعمل تحليل PERT؟
فوائد استخدام تحليل PERT:
قيود تحليل PERT:
خاتمة
يُعد تحليل PERT أداة قيمة لمديري المشاريع الذين يسعون إلى التنقل في عدم اليقين المتأصل في المشاريع المعقدة. من خلال مراعاة سيناريوهات متعددة وفهم التأثير المحتمل لعوامل مختلفة، يُمكن لـ PERT تمكين فرق المشاريع من اتخاذ قرارات مستنيرة، والتخفيف من المخاطر، وتحسين فرص إنجاز المشروع بنجاح.
Instructions: Choose the best answer for each question.
1. What is the main purpose of PERT analysis?
a) To determine the exact completion date of a project. b) To estimate the duration of project activities using a probabilistic approach. c) To identify the most critical activity in a project. d) To track the progress of a project in real-time.
b) To estimate the duration of project activities using a probabilistic approach.
2. Which of the following scenarios is NOT considered in PERT analysis?
a) Best-Case b) Expected-Case c) Most Likely-Case d) Worst-Case
c) Most Likely-Case
3. What is the formula used to calculate the expected duration of an activity in PERT analysis?
a) (Optimistic Duration + Pessimistic Duration) / 2 b) (Optimistic Duration + 4 * Most Likely Duration + Pessimistic Duration) / 6 c) (Optimistic Duration + Pessimistic Duration) / 3 d) (Optimistic Duration + Most Likely Duration + Pessimistic Duration) / 3
b) (Optimistic Duration + 4 * Most Likely Duration + Pessimistic Duration) / 6
4. Which of the following is a benefit of using PERT analysis?
a) Eliminating all project risks. b) Providing a single-point estimate for project duration. c) Improved communication about potential project outcomes. d) Reducing the need for project planning.
c) Improved communication about potential project outcomes.
5. What is a major limitation of PERT analysis?
a) It only considers the worst-case scenario. b) It requires detailed knowledge of the project team's skills. c) It assumes all project activities are independent. d) It can only be used for small and simple projects.
c) It assumes all project activities are independent.
Task:
You are planning a new website launch for your company. Here are the estimated durations for each activity in days:
| Activity | Optimistic | Most Likely | Pessimistic | |---|---|---|---| | Design Website | 5 | 8 | 12 | | Develop Website | 10 | 15 | 20 | | Content Creation | 3 | 5 | 8 | | Testing & Debugging | 2 | 4 | 6 | | Launch Website | 1 | 2 | 3 |
**1. Expected Durations:** * Design Website: (5 + 4*8 + 12) / 6 = 8.33 days * Develop Website: (10 + 4*15 + 20) / 6 = 15 days * Content Creation: (3 + 4*5 + 8) / 6 = 5 days * Testing & Debugging: (2 + 4*4 + 6) / 6 = 4 days * Launch Website: (1 + 4*2 + 3) / 6 = 2 days **2. Network Diagram:** ``` [Start] -> Design Website -> Develop Website -> Content Creation -> Testing & Debugging -> Launch Website -> [End] ``` **3. Critical Path and Project Duration:** The critical path is the longest sequence of activities: Design Website -> Develop Website -> Content Creation -> Testing & Debugging -> Launch Website. The overall project duration is the sum of the expected durations of the activities on the critical path: 8.33 + 15 + 5 + 4 + 2 = **34.33 days** **4. Potential Risks and Uncertainties:** * **Unforeseen Delays:** Technical issues during development, content creation delays, or testing problems could lead to delays. * **Resource Availability:** Limited access to developers, designers, or content writers could impact the project timeline. * **Quality Issues:** Extensive re-work due to design or development flaws could extend the project duration. * **Changing Requirements:** Late changes in the project scope or requirements could lead to delays and rework. * **Launch Day Issues:** Unexpected technical glitches or server problems on launch day could impact the success of the launch.