تقدير التكلفة والتحكم فيها

Cost Benefit Analysis

تحليل التكلفة والفائدة: توجيه قرارات الاستثمار في تقدير التكلفة والتحكم فيها

تحليل التكلفة والفائدة (CBA) هو أداة قوية تُستخدم في تقدير التكلفة والتحكم فيها، مما يسمح لمديري المشاريع وصانعي القرارات بتقييم جدوى المشاريع المالية من خلال مقارنة التكاليف والفوائد المحتملة. من خلال تحديد العوائد المتوقعة من الاستثمار، يُمكّن CBA من اتخاذ قرارات مستنيرة بشأن تخصيص الموارد وأولوية المشاريع.

فهم الأساسيات:

ما هو تحليل التكلفة والفائدة؟

في جوهره، يتضمن CBA تقييمًا منهجيًا للآثار المالية لمشروع أو استثمار. فهو يحلل:

  • التكاليف: جميع النفقات المرتبطة بالمشروع، بما في ذلك الاستثمار الأولي، وتكاليف التشغيل، والصيانة، وأي مخاطر محتملة.
  • الفوائد: النتائج الإيجابية الناجمة عن المشروع، قابلة للقياس من حيث الأرباح المالية، أو تحسين الكفاءة، أو زيادة الإنتاجية، أو خفض التكاليف.

المعادلة الرئيسية:

غالبًا ما يُمثّل CBA بمعادلة بسيطة:

الفوائد / التكاليف = نسبة الفائدة إلى التكلفة

تشير النسبة الأكبر من 1 إلى أن الفوائد تفوق التكاليف، مما يجعل المشروع جذابًا من الناحية المالية. تشير النسبة الأقل من 1 إلى أن التكاليف قد تتجاوز الفوائد، مما يشير إلى مخاطر مالية محتملة.

التطبيقات في تقدير التكلفة والتحكم فيها:

1. تحديد أولوية المشاريع:

يساعد CBA في تحديد أولوية المشاريع من خلال مقارنة الفوائد والتكاليف المتوقعة لخيارات مختلفة. وهذا يسمح للمديرين بتخصيص الموارد بفعالية للمشاريع ذات العائد الأعلى على الاستثمار.

2. قرارات الاستثمار:

يوفر CBA أساسًا قويًا لاتخاذ قرارات مستنيرة بشأن استثمارات رأس المال. من خلال تحديد العوائد المحتملة، فهو يساعد على تجنب الاستثمار في مشاريع قد لا تولد قيمة كافية.

3. إدارة المخاطر:

يدمج CBA تقييم المخاطر في التحليل، مما يسمح للمديرين بتحديد وتحديد الكميات من المخاطر المحتملة المرتبطة بمشروع. وهذا يساعد على تطوير استراتيجيات للتخفيف من تلك المخاطر وضمان نجاح المشروع بشكل عام.

4. مبررات الميزانية:

يمكن استخدام نتائج CBA لتبرير طلبات الميزانية للمشاريع. من خلال إظهار الفوائد المحتملة والعائد المالي، فهو يقوي حجة الاستثمار.

5. تقييم الأداء:

يمكن استخدام CBA لتقييم أداء المشاريع القائمة من خلال مقارنة الفوائد الفعلية المحققة بالنتائج المتوقعة. وهذا يساعد على تحديد مجالات التحسين وضمان أن المشاريع توفر القيمة المتوقعة.

الخطوات الرئيسية في إجراء CBA:

  1. تحديد أهداف المشروع: تحديد الأهداف والنتائج المحددة للمشروع.
  2. تحديد التكاليف والفوائد: تحديد جميع التكاليف والفوائد ذات الصلة، الملموسة وغير الملموسة.
  3. تقدير قيم التكلفة والفائدة: استخدام البيانات التاريخية، وأبحاث السوق، و آراء الخبراء لتقدير القيم المالية لكل تكلفة وفائدة.
  4. خصم الفوائد المستقبلية: مراعاة القيمة الزمنية للنقود من خلال خصم الفوائد المستقبلية إلى قيمتها الحالية.
  5. حساب نسبة الفائدة إلى التكلفة: قسم القيمة الحالية الإجمالية للفوائد على القيمة الحالية الإجمالية للتكاليف.
  6. إجراء تحليل الحساسية: تقييم تأثير التغييرات المحتملة في تقديرات التكلفة أو الفائدة على النتيجة الإجمالية.
  7. إبلاغ النتائج: تقديم نتائج CBA بوضوح وإيجاز لأصحاب المصلحة، مع تسليط الضوء على النتائج والتوصيات الرئيسية.

الخلاصة:

تحليل التكلفة والفائدة أداة أساسية لاتخاذ قرارات مالية سليمة في تقدير التكلفة والتحكم فيها. من خلال تحديد الفوائد والتكاليف المحتملة للمشاريع، يساعد CBA المنظمات على تعظيم عوائد الاستثمار وضمان تقديم المشاريع للقيمة. من خلال تنفيذ هذا النهج المنهجي، يمكن للمديرين تحسين تخصيص الموارد، وتحسين إدارة المخاطر، وتعزيز نجاح المشروع بشكل عام.


Test Your Knowledge

Cost Benefit Analysis Quiz

Instructions: Choose the best answer for each question.

1. What is the primary purpose of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)? a) To determine the total cost of a project. b) To evaluate the financial viability of a project. c) To identify potential risks associated with a project. d) To create a detailed project budget.

Answer

b) To evaluate the financial viability of a project.

2. The Benefit-Cost Ratio in CBA is calculated by: a) Benefits - Costs b) Costs / Benefits c) Benefits / Costs d) Costs * Benefits

Answer

c) Benefits / Costs

3. Which of the following is NOT a typical application of CBA in cost estimation and control? a) Project prioritization b) Investment decisions c) Risk management d) Project scheduling

Answer

d) Project scheduling

4. Why is discounting future benefits important in CBA? a) To account for inflation. b) To adjust for the time value of money. c) To compare benefits across different time periods. d) All of the above.

Answer

d) All of the above.

5. A Benefit-Cost Ratio of 1.5 indicates that: a) The costs exceed the benefits. b) The project is not financially viable. c) The benefits outweigh the costs. d) The project is too risky.

Answer

c) The benefits outweigh the costs.

Cost Benefit Analysis Exercise

Scenario: A company is considering investing in a new software system that will automate certain tasks, leading to increased efficiency and reduced labor costs. The initial investment cost is $100,000, and the software is expected to save the company $25,000 per year for the next 5 years.

Task:

  1. Identify the costs and benefits: List all the relevant costs and benefits associated with this investment.
  2. Estimate the cost and benefit values: Assign a specific dollar amount to each cost and benefit.
  3. Calculate the Benefit-Cost Ratio: Determine the overall financial viability of this investment using the Benefit-Cost Ratio formula.

Exercice Correction

**1. Costs and Benefits:** * **Costs:** * Initial investment: $100,000 * Maintenance costs (if applicable): $X * Training costs: $Y * **Benefits:** * Annual savings in labor costs: $25,000 per year for 5 years = $125,000 total. **2. Estimated Values:** * Assume for this exercise that maintenance costs are $5,000 per year, and training costs are $10,000. **3. Benefit-Cost Ratio:** * Total Costs = $100,000 (initial investment) + $25,000 (maintenance for 5 years) + $10,000 (training) = $135,000 * Total Benefits = $125,000 * Benefit-Cost Ratio = $125,000 / $135,000 = **0.93** **Conclusion:** This software investment has a Benefit-Cost Ratio less than 1, suggesting that the costs may exceed the benefits. The company should consider other factors like potential increased productivity and long-term savings before making a final decision.


Books

  • Cost-Benefit Analysis: By R. Donald R. H. Jones-Lee, this book provides a comprehensive overview of CBA techniques, with a focus on economic evaluation.
  • Cost Benefit Analysis: A Guide to Public Sector Decision Making: By Adrian Littlechild, this book focuses on applying CBA in the public sector.
  • Fundamentals of Cost Benefit Analysis: By David L. Weimer and Aidan R. Vining, this book offers a practical guide to conducting CBA in various contexts.
  • The Economics of Cost-Benefit Analysis: By Anthony Boardman, David Greenberg, Aidan Vining, and David Weimer, this advanced text delves deeper into economic principles underlying CBA.

Articles

  • "Cost-Benefit Analysis: A Practical Guide for Engineers" by K. E. Wieand and A. A. Adeli (Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1997) - Focuses on applying CBA in engineering projects.
  • "Cost-Benefit Analysis in Healthcare: A Review" by A. J. Culyer (Health Economics, 2001) - Explores CBA applications in the healthcare sector.
  • "Cost Benefit Analysis of Public Projects" by J. C. J. M. Van den Bergh (Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2005) - Explores CBA in public infrastructure projects.

Online Resources

  • The Guide to Cost Benefit Analysis: by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) - Offers a practical guide for conducting CBA in various environmental projects.
  • The Cost-Benefit Analysis Tool Kit: by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) - Provides tools and resources for applying CBA in federal projects.
  • Cost Benefit Analysis Resources: by the International Cost Benefit Analysis Society (ICBAS) - A hub for information on CBA practices, research, and training.

Search Tips

  • Use specific keywords: Combine "cost benefit analysis" with relevant terms like "project management", "cost estimation", "risk management", and specific industries (e.g., "healthcare", "infrastructure").
  • Refine with search operators: Use quotation marks for exact phrases (e.g., "cost benefit analysis techniques"), minus sign to exclude irrelevant results (e.g., "cost benefit analysis -financial modeling"), and plus sign to include specific terms (e.g., "cost benefit analysis +case studies").
  • Explore advanced search options: Use Google Scholar to access peer-reviewed research articles and refine your search by publication date, author, or keywords.
  • Utilize industry-specific websites: Search websites of relevant professional organizations or government agencies for specific CBA resources and guidance.

Techniques

Chapter 1: Techniques of Cost Benefit Analysis

This chapter explores the various techniques used in cost benefit analysis (CBA) to effectively measure and compare costs and benefits.

1.1. Cost Estimation Methods:

  • Top-down estimation: This method utilizes historical data and industry benchmarks to arrive at an overall cost estimate for the project.
  • Bottom-up estimation: This involves breaking down the project into smaller components and estimating costs for each, leading to a more detailed and accurate cost estimation.
  • Parametric estimation: This technique utilizes statistical relationships between cost and project parameters (e.g., size, complexity) to estimate costs.
  • Activity-based costing: This approach focuses on identifying and allocating costs to specific activities involved in the project.

1.2. Benefit Measurement Techniques:

  • Tangible benefits: These can be easily quantified in monetary terms, such as increased revenue, cost savings, or productivity gains.
  • Intangible benefits: These are harder to quantify but still valuable, such as improved employee morale, enhanced reputation, or increased customer satisfaction.
  • Monetary valuation of intangible benefits: Techniques like contingent valuation, conjoint analysis, and hedonic pricing can help assign monetary values to intangible benefits.

1.3. Discounting Techniques:

  • Time Value of Money: This principle recognizes that money today is worth more than the same amount of money in the future due to potential earnings.
  • Discount Rate: This is the rate used to calculate the present value of future benefits. It reflects the risk and opportunity cost associated with the project.
  • Net Present Value (NPV): This calculates the present value of all future cash flows from the project, taking into account the discount rate.

1.4. Sensitivity Analysis:

  • Scenario Analysis: This explores different possible scenarios for key variables (e.g., costs, benefits, discount rate) to assess their impact on the CBA results.
  • Break-Even Analysis: This helps determine the point where the project's benefits equal its costs, indicating the minimum level of benefits required for profitability.

1.5. Risk Assessment:

  • Probability and Impact: Identifying potential risks, estimating their likelihood of occurrence, and assessing their potential impact on project costs and benefits.
  • Risk Mitigation Strategies: Developing strategies to reduce the likelihood or impact of identified risks.

1.6. Other Techniques:

  • Decision Tree Analysis: This visualizes possible outcomes and their associated probabilities to evaluate different project alternatives.
  • Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: This compares the costs of different project options that achieve a specific objective, focusing on efficiency rather than financial return.

Conclusion:

The techniques described in this chapter provide valuable tools for conducting a comprehensive and robust cost benefit analysis. By understanding and utilizing these techniques, project managers and decision-makers can ensure a well-informed and successful investment decision.

Chapter 2: Models of Cost Benefit Analysis

This chapter explores different models used in cost benefit analysis (CBA) to structure and organize the analysis process.

2.1. Simple CBA Model:

  • Cost: This focuses on identifying all direct and indirect costs associated with the project.
  • Benefit: This emphasizes quantifying the tangible and intangible benefits expected from the project.
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR): This is the most basic model, calculated by dividing the total benefits by the total costs.
  • Limitations: This model often simplifies the analysis and may not adequately address risks and uncertainties.

2.2. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model:

  • Cash Flows: This model focuses on identifying all cash inflows and outflows related to the project over its lifespan.
  • Discounting: It uses a discount rate to adjust future cash flows to their present value, accounting for the time value of money.
  • NPV (Net Present Value): This metric calculates the difference between the present value of all cash inflows and the present value of all cash outflows.
  • IRR (Internal Rate of Return): This calculates the discount rate that makes the NPV of the project equal to zero.
  • Advantages: This model is more comprehensive than the simple model, considering the time value of money and providing a more robust financial assessment.

2.3. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Model:

  • Multiple Criteria: This model considers various criteria beyond just financial benefits, such as environmental impact, social equity, or strategic alignment.
  • Weights: Each criterion is assigned a weight reflecting its relative importance.
  • Ranking: The model evaluates different project alternatives against each criterion and ranks them based on their weighted scores.
  • Advantages: This model allows for a more holistic evaluation of projects, considering both financial and non-financial aspects.

2.4. Monte Carlo Simulation:

  • Probabilistic Approach: This model uses statistical simulations to assess the impact of uncertainty on project costs and benefits.
  • Random Variables: Key variables like costs, benefits, and discount rate are defined as random variables with specified probability distributions.
  • Sensitivity Analysis: The model generates multiple scenarios and analyzes the distribution of outcomes to assess risk and uncertainty.
  • Advantages: This model provides a more realistic evaluation of project outcomes, considering potential variations in costs and benefits.

2.5. Other Models:

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA): This model focuses on evaluating the total cost of ownership of a project throughout its entire life cycle, including initial investment, operating costs, and maintenance costs.
  • Social Impact Analysis: This model assesses the social impact of a project on communities and stakeholders, considering factors like job creation, environmental protection, and social equity.

Conclusion:

Choosing the appropriate model for CBA depends on the project's complexity, available data, and the decision-making objectives. Each model provides a unique framework for analyzing costs and benefits, offering valuable insights for informed investment decisions.

Chapter 3: Software for Cost Benefit Analysis

This chapter explores software solutions that can assist in conducting cost benefit analysis (CBA).

3.1. Spreadsheet Software:

  • Microsoft Excel: A versatile and widely available spreadsheet software that can be used for basic CBA calculations, including present value calculations and sensitivity analysis.
  • Google Sheets: A cloud-based spreadsheet software that offers similar functionality to Excel, with the advantage of collaborative editing and access from various devices.
  • OpenOffice Calc: A free and open-source spreadsheet software that provides a range of features for conducting CBA.
  • Advantages: Easy to learn and use, widely available, relatively inexpensive, and often sufficient for smaller projects.
  • Limitations: May not offer advanced features like Monte Carlo simulation or sophisticated sensitivity analysis.

3.2. Specialized CBA Software:

  • CBA Pro: A comprehensive CBA software that covers all aspects of analysis, including cost estimation, benefit quantification, discounting, risk analysis, and reporting.
  • Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Software by BizStats: This software offers various templates, calculations, and reports for conducting CBA for different project types.
  • Cost Benefit Calculator: Online calculators available on various websites, offering basic CBA functionalities for quick estimations.
  • Advantages: Offer advanced features for complex CBA projects, provide user-friendly interfaces, and often come with detailed reporting capabilities.
  • Limitations: May require a higher learning curve and can be more expensive than spreadsheet software.

3.3. Project Management Software:

  • Microsoft Project: A project management software that includes tools for cost tracking, budget control, and resource allocation, which can be leveraged for CBA.
  • Asana: A cloud-based project management software that offers features for project planning, task management, and communication, which can be integrated with CBA.
  • Jira: A project management software popular for software development, which includes tools for tracking costs, time spent, and project progress, useful for CBA in software projects.
  • Advantages: Integrate seamlessly with existing project management processes, provide data insights for CBA, and offer features for collaboration and communication.
  • Limitations: May not offer dedicated CBA functionalities and may require additional customization or integration with other tools.

3.4. Cloud-based Platforms:

  • BizStats: Offers online tools for various business analyses, including CBA, with a focus on providing data-driven insights.
  • CA$Hflow: A cloud-based platform designed for conducting CBA, providing a user-friendly interface for modeling costs and benefits.
  • Advantages: Accessibility from any device, real-time collaboration capabilities, and often offer integrations with other software tools.
  • Limitations: May have limitations in functionality compared to dedicated software, require an internet connection, and data security concerns.

3.5. Key Features to Consider:

  • Cost Estimation Tools: Features for creating cost breakdowns, estimating costs, and tracking expenses.
  • Benefit Quantification Tools: Options for quantifying tangible and intangible benefits, including monetary valuation techniques.
  • Discounting and NPV Calculations: Tools for incorporating the time value of money and calculating NPV.
  • Sensitivity Analysis: Features for exploring different scenarios and assessing the impact of uncertainties.
  • Risk Assessment Tools: Options for identifying and analyzing potential risks, estimating their impact, and developing mitigation strategies.
  • Reporting Capabilities: Tools for generating reports and presenting the CBA results in a clear and concise manner.

Conclusion:

Software tools can significantly enhance the efficiency and accuracy of cost benefit analysis. By choosing the right software based on project requirements and budget, organizations can streamline the CBA process, optimize resource allocation, and make informed investment decisions.

Chapter 4: Best Practices in Cost Benefit Analysis

This chapter outlines best practices for conducting a robust and reliable cost benefit analysis (CBA).

4.1. Define Clear Project Objectives:

  • Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound (SMART): Ensuring the project objectives are well-defined and actionable.
  • Alignment with Strategic Goals: Ensuring the project contributes to the organization's overall strategic goals.
  • Stakeholder Input: Involving stakeholders in defining project objectives and ensuring alignment with their needs.

4.2. Comprehensive Cost and Benefit Identification:

  • Tangible and Intangible Costs and Benefits: Including both easily quantifiable and less tangible factors.
  • Direct and Indirect Costs: Considering all costs directly related to the project as well as indirect costs such as overhead and opportunity costs.
  • Long-term Perspective: Evaluating both short-term and long-term costs and benefits.

4.3. Accurate Cost and Benefit Estimation:

  • Historical Data: Utilizing past data and industry benchmarks for accurate cost estimation.
  • Market Research: Conducting thorough market research to assess potential benefits and determine realistic market values.
  • Expert Opinions: Consulting with experts to obtain informed estimates and ensure accuracy.

4.4. Discounting Future Benefits:

  • Appropriate Discount Rate: Selecting a discount rate that reflects the risk and opportunity cost of the project.
  • Sensitivity Analysis: Performing sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of different discount rates on the CBA results.

4.5. Risk Assessment and Mitigation:

  • Identify Potential Risks: Conducting a comprehensive risk assessment to identify all potential risks.
  • Quantify Risk Impact: Estimating the potential impact of each risk on project costs and benefits.
  • Develop Mitigation Strategies: Creating strategies to reduce the likelihood or impact of identified risks.

4.6. Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Planning:

  • Vary Key Variables: Analyzing the impact of changes in key variables, such as cost estimates, benefit projections, and discount rate.
  • Scenario Planning: Developing multiple scenarios to assess the CBA results under different assumptions and market conditions.

4.7. Clear Communication and Presentation:

  • Concise and Informative Reports: Presenting the CBA results in a clear and concise manner, using visuals and graphs to enhance understanding.
  • Key Findings and Recommendations: Highlighting the most important findings and providing actionable recommendations for decision-making.
  • Stakeholder Engagement: Ensuring stakeholders understand the CBA results and are involved in the decision-making process.

4.8. Continuous Monitoring and Evaluation:

  • Track Progress and Actual Costs: Regularly monitoring the project's progress and comparing actual costs to estimated costs.
  • Evaluate Benefits Realized: Assessing the actual benefits achieved compared to projected benefits.
  • Adjust Assumptions and Strategies: Making necessary adjustments to assumptions and strategies based on ongoing monitoring and evaluation.

Conclusion:

By following these best practices, organizations can ensure that their cost benefit analyses are comprehensive, reliable, and provide a solid foundation for informed investment decisions. A robust CBA process is crucial for maximizing project success and achieving strategic goals.

Chapter 5: Case Studies in Cost Benefit Analysis

This chapter presents real-world case studies demonstrating the application and impact of cost benefit analysis (CBA) in various industries.

5.1. Energy Efficiency Retrofit Project:

  • Objective: Reduce energy consumption and operating costs in a commercial building.
  • Cost: Initial investment in retrofitting equipment, installation costs, and ongoing maintenance costs.
  • Benefit: Reduced energy consumption, lower utility bills, and potential tax incentives.
  • CBA Results: The project was deemed financially viable, with a positive NPV and a short payback period.
  • Impact: The retrofit project significantly reduced energy consumption and operating costs, contributing to both financial sustainability and environmental responsibility.

5.2. New Product Development Project:

  • Objective: Develop and launch a new product to capture a growing market share.
  • Cost: Research and development costs, manufacturing setup costs, marketing and launch expenses.
  • Benefit: Increased sales revenue, market share expansion, and potential brand enhancement.
  • CBA Results: The project demonstrated a strong potential return on investment, with a high BCR and positive NPV.
  • Impact: The successful launch of the new product significantly increased sales and market share, leading to increased profitability for the organization.

5.3. IT System Upgrade Project:

  • Objective: Improve IT infrastructure and enhance system performance, security, and efficiency.
  • Cost: Hardware and software purchase costs, implementation and integration costs, training costs.
  • Benefit: Improved system performance, reduced downtime, increased security, and enhanced collaboration.
  • CBA Results: The CBA demonstrated the project's value proposition, with significant cost savings from increased efficiency and reduced downtime.
  • Impact: The IT system upgrade significantly improved operational efficiency, boosted productivity, and reduced security risks, enhancing the organization's overall competitiveness.

5.4. Sustainability Initiative Project:

  • Objective: Reduce environmental impact and promote sustainable practices within an organization.
  • Cost: Investment in renewable energy sources, waste reduction initiatives, and employee training.
  • Benefit: Reduced environmental footprint, enhanced brand reputation, and potential cost savings from reduced energy consumption and waste disposal.
  • CBA Results: The CBA demonstrated the project's positive environmental and financial benefits, despite initial investment costs.
  • Impact: The sustainability initiative project significantly reduced the organization's environmental impact, enhancing its brand image and contributing to a more sustainable future.

5.5. Healthcare Technology Implementation Project:

  • Objective: Implement new healthcare technology to improve patient care, streamline processes, and reduce costs.
  • Cost: Technology purchase and implementation costs, training costs, and potential disruption to existing workflows.
  • Benefit: Improved patient outcomes, enhanced efficiency, reduced medical errors, and potential cost savings from improved resource allocation.
  • CBA Results: The CBA demonstrated the project's significant potential benefits, with improved patient outcomes and cost savings outweighing the initial investment costs.
  • Impact: The implementation of new healthcare technology improved patient care, reduced costs, and enhanced the overall efficiency of the healthcare system.

Conclusion:

These case studies illustrate the wide range of applications and benefits of cost benefit analysis across various industries. By systematically evaluating costs and benefits, CBA empowers organizations to make informed decisions, maximize investment returns, and achieve their strategic objectives.

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