Ingénierie des réservoirs

Scorpion Plot

Le Diagramme Scorpion : Un Outil Piquant pour l'Analyse des Travaux de Réhabilitation

Dans l'industrie pétrolière et gazière, les **travaux de réhabilitation** sont essentiels pour revitaliser les puits vieillissants, résoudre les problèmes de production et prolonger la durée de vie des champs. Cependant, décider si un travail de réhabilitation est économiquement viable nécessite une analyse minutieuse. C'est là que le **Diagramme Scorpion** entre en jeu, un outil puissant pour visualiser et évaluer l'impact économique des travaux de réhabilitation.

**Qu'est-ce qu'un Diagramme Scorpion ?**

Un Diagramme Scorpion est une représentation graphique de la relation entre la **production du puits** (généralement le débit d'huile ou de gaz) et le **coût des opérations**, en se concentrant spécifiquement sur l'impact des travaux de réhabilitation. Le diagramme tire son nom de sa forme :

  • **Queue :** Représente la performance de production du puits **avant** le travail de réhabilitation. Cette section montre généralement une tendance à la baisse de la production.
  • **Corps :** Représente le **travail de réhabilitation** lui-même, illustrant le coût initial engagé.
  • **Dard :** Représente la performance de production **après le travail de réhabilitation**, mettant en évidence l'augmentation potentielle de la production après l'intervention.

**Pourquoi est-il utile ?**

Le Diagramme Scorpion offre une comparaison visuelle claire du coût et des avantages d'un travail de réhabilitation, permettant une prise de décision éclairée :

  • **Viabilité économique :** La longueur du dard par rapport au corps du scorpion indique la rentabilité du travail de réhabilitation. Un dard long et percutant justifie le coût du travail de réhabilitation, tandis qu'un dard court et inefficace suggère que l'intervention n'a pas été rentable.
  • **Efficacité du travail de réhabilitation :** Comparer les Diagrammes Scorpion pour différents puits ou différentes stratégies de travail de réhabilitation met en évidence l'efficacité relative de chaque intervention.
  • **Identification des tendances :** Analyser la forme du scorpion peut révéler des problèmes potentiels :
    • **Dard plat :** Peut suggérer que le travail de réhabilitation n'a pas résolu la cause profonde du déclin de la production.
    • **Dard en baisse rapide :** Peut indiquer un succès à court terme mais pointer vers des problèmes sous-jacents.
    • **Corps en forte hausse :** Indique un investissement important dans le travail de réhabilitation, nécessitant une augmentation substantielle de la production post-réhabilitation pour justifier le coût.

**Exemple :**

Imaginez deux puits, tous deux subissant des travaux de réhabilitation. Le puits A connaît une augmentation significative de la production post-réhabilitation, ce qui se traduit par un dard long et percutant. Le puits B, en revanche, montre une augmentation minimale de la production, ce qui donne un dard court et faible. Le Diagramme Scorpion démontre clairement la viabilité économique supérieure du travail de réhabilitation effectué sur le puits A.

**Au-delà du graphique :**

Bien que le Diagramme Scorpion offre une représentation visuelle précieuse, il est important de tenir compte de facteurs supplémentaires pour une évaluation complète des travaux de réhabilitation :

  • **Historique du puits :** Comprendre les tendances de production et les interventions précédentes est crucial pour une analyse précise.
  • **Conditions du champ :** Des facteurs tels que les caractéristiques du réservoir, les détails de la complétion du puits et les tendances de production régionales influencent l'efficacité des travaux de réhabilitation.
  • **Ventilation des coûts :** Analyser la ventilation des coûts du travail de réhabilitation permet d'identifier les zones d'optimisation potentielle.

**Conclusion :**

Le Diagramme Scorpion sert d'outil puissant pour visualiser et évaluer la performance des travaux de réhabilitation, facilitant une prise de décision éclairée et maximisant la valeur économique des puits vieillissants. En comprenant la relation coût-avantage et en analysant les tendances de production, cette représentation visuelle permet aux opérateurs de faire des choix stratégiques concernant les travaux de réhabilitation, contribuant finalement au succès à long terme des opérations pétrolières et gazières.


Test Your Knowledge

Scorpion Plot Quiz:

Instructions: Choose the best answer for each question.

1. What does the "tail" of a Scorpion Plot represent?

a) The cost of the workover b) The well's production after the workover c) The well's production before the workover d) The overall production decline of the well

Answer

c) The well's production before the workover

2. What does a long, impactful "stinger" in a Scorpion Plot indicate?

a) The workover was unsuccessful b) The workover was highly profitable c) The workover cost more than the production gains d) The well's production declined rapidly after the workover

Answer

b) The workover was highly profitable

3. Which of the following is NOT a factor to consider when evaluating a Scorpion Plot?

a) The well's production history b) The type of workover performed c) The oil price at the time of the workover d) The reservoir characteristics of the well

Answer

c) The oil price at the time of the workover

4. A Scorpion Plot with a "flat stinger" might suggest that:

a) The workover effectively addressed the production decline b) The workover was extremely expensive c) The workover did not address the root cause of the decline d) The well is nearing the end of its production life

Answer

c) The workover did not address the root cause of the decline

5. Why is the Scorpion Plot a valuable tool for workover analysis?

a) It simplifies the analysis of complex well data b) It visually displays the economic impact of a workover c) It predicts future production trends after a workover d) It eliminates the need for detailed well history analysis

Answer

b) It visually displays the economic impact of a workover

Scorpion Plot Exercise:

Scenario:

You are reviewing two Scorpion Plots for different wells that underwent workovers.

  • Well A: Shows a gradual decline in production before the workover (tail), a significant investment in the workover (body), and a steep increase in production immediately after the workover, followed by a gradual decline (stinger).
  • Well B: Shows a steep decline in production before the workover (tail), a moderate investment in the workover (body), and a slight increase in production after the workover, followed by a continued decline (stinger).

Task:

Analyze the two Scorpion Plots and answer the following questions:

  1. Which well experienced a more successful workover based on the Scorpion Plot?
  2. What insights can you draw about the potential causes of the production decline in each well before the workover?
  3. Which well would you recommend for further investment in workovers based on the Scorpion Plots?

Exercice Correction

1. **Well A** experienced a more successful workover as it shows a significant production increase following the workover, indicating that the intervention addressed the production decline effectively. 2. **Well A:** The gradual decline before the workover suggests a potential issue with natural reservoir depletion or gradual decline in well performance. **Well B:** The steep decline suggests a more rapid and severe production decline, potentially due to a sudden issue like wellbore damage, plugging, or a significant change in reservoir conditions. 3. **Well A** shows a more promising response to workover, justifying further investment to potentially extend the well's production life. Well B, despite a modest improvement, shows a less impactful workover and might require further evaluation and possibly a different intervention strategy.


Books

  • Petroleum Engineering Handbook: This comprehensive handbook likely includes a section on workover analysis and may touch upon Scorpion Plots.
  • Production Optimization of Oil and Gas Wells: Books focusing on production optimization techniques often cover workover evaluation methods like the Scorpion Plot.
  • Reservoir Engineering: Books on reservoir engineering may include discussions on production forecasting and workover strategies, potentially mentioning the Scorpion Plot.

Articles

  • "Workover Analysis using the Scorpion Plot" by [Author Name]: Search for articles specifically titled "Scorpion Plot" or "Workover Analysis" to find relevant content.
  • "A Comprehensive Guide to Workover Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry": Articles summarizing workover practices may include the Scorpion Plot as a decision-making tool.
  • Industry Journals: Publications like SPE Journal, Journal of Petroleum Technology, and other oil and gas journals might feature articles discussing workover evaluation techniques and potentially utilizing Scorpion Plots.

Online Resources

  • SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineers): The SPE website, including their online library and search engine, could contain resources on workover analysis and Scorpion Plots.
  • Google Scholar: Use Google Scholar to search for academic publications that mention "Scorpion Plot" or "Workover Analysis" in the context of oil and gas.
  • Oil and Gas Industry Websites: Websites of major oil and gas companies or industry organizations might have articles or presentations discussing workover evaluation methods.

Search Tips

  • Use specific keywords: "Scorpion Plot," "Workover Analysis," "Oil & Gas Production," "Economic Evaluation."
  • Combine keywords: Try phrases like "Scorpion Plot workover evaluation" or "economic analysis using Scorpion Plot."
  • Use advanced search operators:
    • "filetype:pdf" to find PDF documents
    • "site:spe.org" to search only within the SPE website
    • "related: [URL]" to find similar resources to a website you know

Techniques

Chapter 1: Techniques for Constructing Scorpion Plots

The Scorpion Plot, as described previously, is a valuable tool for workover analysis. This chapter delves into the specific techniques used to construct these insightful plots.

1. Data Gathering:

  • Production Data: Obtain historical production data for the well, including oil, gas, or water rates. This data should span a sufficient period before and after the workover.
  • Workover Costs: Collect a detailed breakdown of all costs associated with the workover, including labor, materials, equipment, and permits.
  • Time Stamps: Ensure accurate time stamps for both production data and workover costs, aligning them to provide a clear chronological representation.

2. Data Preparation:

  • Normalizing Production Data: Standardize production rates to a common unit (e.g., barrels of oil equivalent per day). This enables consistent comparison across different wells or workovers.
  • Cost Aggregation: Summarize the total workover cost into a single value representing the investment.
  • Data Visualization Software: Utilize suitable software (e.g., Excel, MATLAB, Python) to handle data manipulation, plotting, and visualization.

3. Plot Construction:

  • X-Axis: Represent time, spanning a period before and after the workover. This axis allows for the visualization of production trends over time.
  • Y-Axis: Plot production rate on the left y-axis, and cost on the right y-axis. Ensure consistent scaling for both axes.
  • Pre-Workover Tail: Plot production data prior to the workover, representing the well's declining performance.
  • Workover Body: Mark the workover time period on the x-axis. Represent the total workover cost as a vertical bar extending upwards from the x-axis.
  • Post-Workover Stinger: Plot production data post-workover, showcasing the impact of the intervention. The length and direction of this section reveal the workover's success.

4. Plot Interpretation:

  • Stinger Length: A long, upward-trending stinger indicates significant production improvement, justifying the workover cost.
  • Stinger Slope: A steep upward slope suggests a rapid production increase. A gradual slope suggests a slower recovery.
  • Body Height: A high body indicates a significant investment in the workover. It must be accompanied by a substantial production increase for profitability.
  • Flat Stinger: A flat stinger suggests the workover failed to address the production decline.
  • Declining Stinger: A rapidly declining stinger indicates a short-term improvement followed by further production loss, suggesting underlying issues.

5. Additional Considerations:

  • Data Quality: Ensure data accuracy and completeness. Poor data can lead to misleading plots and inaccurate conclusions.
  • Well Specifics: Consider factors like reservoir characteristics, well completion, and production history. This context helps interpret the plot effectively.
  • Sensitivity Analysis: Varying workover costs and production projections can assess the robustness of the economic decision.

Conclusion:

Constructing a Scorpion Plot requires careful data collection, preparation, and visualization. By mastering these techniques, operators gain valuable insights into workover performance, enabling informed decisions that maximize economic value.

Termes similaires
Ingénierie des réservoirsTraitement du pétrole et du gazPlanification et ordonnancement du projetGéologie et exploration
Les plus regardés
Categories

Comments


Jose Zamalloa
on 13 février 2025 at 13:57

Can we use scorpion plots to estimate how much longer we need to fish on a good oil rate well? Lets suppose we have an ESP fish in an 8000 bfpd, 60% WC, (3200 bopd). The WO guys estimated 35 days to recover the fish and 7 days to run the new ESP. However after 25 days they have recovered only 60% of the fish and the recovery rate is medium-low. For such an oil rate, how many more days should we keep on fishing? Cheers.

Response

Yes, scorpion plots (or decision trees for fishing operations) can be useful for estimating how much longer you should continue fishing. They help in determining when to switch from fishing to sidetracking or other contingency plans based on recovery progress, rate of retrieval, and remaining economic value.

Let's analyze your situation:

  • Well production:
    • 3200 bopd, 8000 bfpd, 60% WC
  • Fishing operation timeline:
    • 35 days estimated for full fish recovery
    • 7 days to run the new ESP
    • 25 days elapsed, 60% of fish recovered
    • Recovery rate: medium-low

Estimating Remaining Fishing Time

1. Recovery Rate

  • 25 days for 60% recovery1.5 days per % (on average)
  • Remaining fish: 40%
  • If the same rate continues: 40% × 1.5 days = 60 days
  • However, since recovery rate is medium-low, progress may slow down further.

2. Decision Based on Oil Deferment

  • Production loss per day: 3200 bopd
  • Lost oil so far: 3200 × 25 = 80,000 bbl
  • Additional loss for 60 more days: 3200 × 60 = 192,000 bbl
  • If you stop now and sidetrack or mill, you could be back online faster.

3. Scorpion Plot Decision

  • If you recover at least 15% more fish in the next ~10 days, fishing may still be viable.
  • If progress stalls below ~10% in the next 10 days, consider switching to a sidetrack/milling plan.

Conclusion

  • If recovery remains slow (~60 more days needed), consider an alternative plan.
  • If the next 10 days show at least 15% more fish recovered, continue.
  • Given the oil loss, a cost-benefit analysis is crucial—if sidetracking is faster, it might be the better choice.

To estimate the economic breakeven for continuing fishing versus sidetracking, we need to compare lost revenue due to deferred oil production with the cost of fishing and sidetracking.


Given Data

  • Oil Rate: 3200 bopd
  • Oil Price: Assume $80/bbl (you can adjust)
  • Fishing Progress: 60% recovered in 25 days, medium-low rate
  • Fishing Cost: Assume $50,000/day (varies by region & contractor)
  • Sidetrack Cost: Assume $4M (depends on well depth & geology)
  • Time Estimates:
    • Fishing (if continued): 60 more days
    • Sidetrack & ESP Run: 35 days total

Scenario 1: Continue Fishing (60 More Days)

  • Lost Revenue:
    • 60 days × 3200 bopd × $80 = $15.36M lost oil revenue
  • Fishing Cost:
    • 60 days × $50,000 = $3M
  • Total Loss: $18.36M

Scenario 2: Sidetrack & ESP (35 Days)

  • Lost Revenue:
    • 35 days × 3200 bopd × $80 = $8.96M lost oil revenue
  • Sidetrack Cost:
    • $4M
  • Total Loss: $12.96M

Comparison & Decision

  • Fishing (60 days): $18.36M total loss
  • Sidetrack (35 days): $12.96M total loss
  • Difference: Sidetrack saves $5.4M

If recovery rate doesn’t improve significantly in the next 10 days, sidetracking is the better option.

 

Let’s refine the calculation with more precise cost assumptions. Please confirm or adjust the following values based on your actual well economics:

Key Cost Inputs

  1. Oil Price: $80/bbl (adjust if different)
  2. Fishing Cost: $50,000/day (confirm or adjust)
  3. Sidetrack Cost: $4M (confirm or adjust)
  4. ESP Installation Time & Cost:
    • 7 days to run the ESP (included in both scenarios)
    • $500,000 ESP install cost (adjust if needed)
  5. Well Productivity Loss:
    • Decline rate: If this is a high-productivity well with no immediate decline, we assume constant 3200 bopd
    • If there is a decline factor, we can adjust this.

Key Inputs to Confirm or Adjust

  1. Oil Price: $80/bbl (or specify)
  2. Fishing Cost: $50,000/day (or actual value)
  3. Sidetrack Cost: $4M (or actual value)
  4. ESP Installation Cost: $500,000 (or actual value)
  5. ESP Installation Time: 7 days (confirm or adjust)
  6. Well Productivity:
    • Current Rate: 3200 bopd (confirm)
    • Decline Rate (if applicable): Assume 0% for now, but adjust if needed.
  7. Fishing Efficiency:
    • Current 60% recovered in 25 days, medium-low progress
    • Expected recovery rate in the next 10 days? (e.g., +10% or less?)

 


POST COMMENT
captcha
Back