Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique ("GERT")

Navigating Uncertainty: GERT in Oil & Gas Project Management

In the high-stakes world of oil and gas, project success hinges on meticulous planning and execution. However, inherent complexities and uncertainties in exploration, extraction, and refining processes often pose significant challenges. Traditional project management tools, like Critical Path Method (CPM), struggle to accommodate the probabilistic nature of these projects. This is where Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) emerges as a powerful tool, enabling a more realistic and nuanced approach to project planning.

GERT: Beyond the Linear Path

Unlike CPM, which relies on a fixed sequence of activities, GERT introduces the concept of conditional and probabilistic relationships. This means that activities within a project can be:

• Conditional: Their execution depends on the outcome of preceding activities. For instance, drilling an exploratory well might trigger further development activities only if it yields positive results.
• Probabilistic: The likelihood of an activity being completed is not certain. This might apply to exploration activities, where the success rate of finding commercially viable deposits is not guaranteed.

The Power of GERT in Oil & Gas

GERT's ability to handle uncertainty translates into numerous benefits for oil & gas projects:

• Realistic Risk Assessment: By incorporating probabilistic elements, GERT allows for a more accurate assessment of project risks, enabling proactive mitigation strategies.
• Optimized Resource Allocation: Understanding the conditional dependencies between activities allows for the efficient allocation of resources, ensuring they are deployed where and when they are most impactful.
• Improved Decision-Making: GERT provides a clearer picture of potential project outcomes, aiding in informed decision-making at crucial junctures.
• Enhanced Project Control: By tracking the progress of activities with varying probabilities, GERT enables better control over project schedules and budgets.

Example: Applying GERT to Exploration

Imagine an exploration project where a company plans to drill two exploratory wells. The outcome of the first well will determine whether the second well is drilled. GERT can model this scenario by:

• Representing each well as an activity node.
• Defining the probability of success for each well.
• Connecting the nodes with arcs representing the conditional relationship – the second well is only executed if the first is successful.

This model allows the company to assess the overall project risk and adjust resource allocation based on the likelihood of success for each well.

Conclusion:

GERT empowers oil & gas project managers to navigate the inherently unpredictable nature of their industry. By embracing probabilistic and conditional relationships, GERT provides a more accurate and comprehensive view of project risks and opportunities, leading to informed decision-making, optimized resource allocation, and ultimately, increased project success rates. As the industry continues to grapple with increasingly complex projects, GERT's value in managing uncertainty will only grow.