Delphi Technique

Test Your Knowledge

Quiz: Delphi Technique in Oil & Gas

Instructions: Choose the best answer for each question.

1. What is the primary goal of the Delphi Technique? a) To identify the most influential expert in a field. b) To reach a consensus view among experts on a specific topic. c) To gather data for statistical analysis. d) To conduct a survey of industry trends.

2. What is a key advantage of the Delphi Technique? a) It eliminates all potential biases in expert opinions. b) It provides a definitive and absolute answer to any question. c) It minimizes groupthink and pressure to conform. d) It guarantees the accuracy of forecasts.

3. Which of the following is NOT a typical application of the Delphi Technique in oil and gas? a) Predicting the price of oil in the next five years. b) Estimating production rates from a new oil well. c) Assessing the feasibility of a new drilling technology. d) Determining the amount of recoverable oil in a reservoir.

4. How does the Delphi Technique work? a) Experts gather in a single meeting to discuss and reach a consensus. b) Experts are interviewed individually and their responses are aggregated. c) Experts complete questionnaires in multiple rounds with feedback and revisions. d) Experts use computer simulations to generate forecasts.

5. What is the role of anonymity in the Delphi Technique? a) To protect the identities of experts from the public. b) To ensure the confidentiality of data collected from experts. c) To allow experts to express their opinions freely without fear of judgment. d) To prevent experts from influencing each other's opinions.

Exercise: Applying the Delphi Technique

Scenario: Your company is considering investing in a new offshore oil drilling project. You need to estimate the potential costs associated with drilling and setting up the rig.

Task: Imagine you are the facilitator for a Delphi Technique session to estimate drilling and rig setup costs for the project.

1. Identify: List three types of experts you would include in the Delphi panel.
2. Outline: Write a brief initial questionnaire with at least three questions related to cost estimation for the project.
3. Describe: Explain how you would provide feedback to the experts after the first round of responses.

Techniques

Delphi Technique: A Consensus-Driven Approach to Oil & Gas Estimation

Chapter 1: Techniques

The Delphi Technique, at its core, is a structured communication technique, not a statistical model. Its power lies in its iterative process and the anonymity it provides. Several variations exist, but the fundamental steps remain consistent:

1. Expert Selection: Careful selection is paramount. Experts should possess diverse yet relevant expertise, avoiding homogenous viewpoints. The number of experts needs to be sufficient to capture a wide range of perspectives but not so large as to become unwieldy. Ideally, a balance between experienced veterans and rising stars is beneficial.

2. Questionnaire Design: The initial questionnaire should be meticulously crafted, using clear, unambiguous language and avoiding leading questions. Questions should focus on specific, measurable aspects of the estimation problem. Open-ended questions can be interspersed with structured ones (e.g., multiple-choice, ranked scales) to allow for qualitative input.

3. Feedback and Aggregation: Responses from the first round are compiled and anonymized. Statistical summaries (e.g., median, interquartile range) are presented to participants in the next round, along with individual responses (optional, depending on the level of feedback desired). This allows experts to see the range of opinions and the collective viewpoint.

4. Iterative Rounds: Subsequent rounds repeat the process. Experts are given the opportunity to revise their estimations based on the aggregated feedback. The goal is not necessarily complete consensus, but a narrowing of the range of estimations and a better understanding of the uncertainties involved. The number of rounds depends on the convergence of opinions; the process continues until a predefined stopping criterion is met (e.g., sufficient convergence, diminishing changes between rounds).

5. Consensus Determination: Defining consensus isn't simply about everyone agreeing on a single number. It might involve establishing an acceptable range of values, identifying key areas of agreement and disagreement, or identifying the most likely scenario with associated confidence levels.

Chapter 2: Models

While the Delphi Technique itself isn't a statistical model, it can be used in conjunction with various quantitative models. The iterative process can inform parameter selection or refine model inputs:

• Reservoir Simulation Models: Experts might use the Delphi Technique to estimate input parameters for reservoir simulations, such as porosity, permeability, and fluid properties. The iterative feedback process could lead to a more realistic and robust simulation.
• Cost Estimation Models: Delphi can be used to assess uncertain factors in cost models, such as equipment costs, labor rates, and unforeseen contingencies.
• Production Forecasting Models: Experts can use Delphi to estimate key parameters in production forecasting models, such as decline rates and well performance factors.

The Delphi technique does not replace these models; instead, it improves the quality of the inputs and calibrates model assumptions, ultimately leading to more reliable outputs.

Chapter 3: Software

Several software solutions can facilitate the Delphi process, although a simple spreadsheet might suffice for smaller projects. The key features to look for include:

• Secure Data Storage and Management: Anonymity is crucial; software should ensure confidentiality and prevent the identification of individual responses.
• Questionnaire Design and Distribution: The software should enable the easy creation and distribution of questionnaires, allowing for various question types (open-ended, multiple choice, ranking).
• Data Aggregation and Analysis: The software should automatically aggregate responses, calculate summary statistics, and generate reports showing the evolution of opinions across rounds.
• Feedback Mechanisms: The system should allow for controlled feedback to participants, showing aggregated results without revealing individual identities.
• Collaboration Tools: Features allowing experts to communicate (e.g., through a forum) can enhance the process, though this should be carefully managed to prevent bias.

Chapter 4: Best Practices

• Careful Expert Selection: Choose experts with relevant experience and diverse perspectives. Avoid bias by ensuring a balanced representation of viewpoints.
• Clear and Concise Questionnaires: Use unambiguous language and clearly define the scope of each question.
• Iterative Feedback: Multiple rounds are crucial for refining estimations and achieving convergence.
• Anonymity and Confidentiality: Maintain the anonymity of participants to minimize bias and encourage honest feedback.
• Transparent Process: Clearly communicate the rules and procedures to participants.
• Experienced Facilitator: A neutral facilitator is crucial for guiding the process, managing communications, and ensuring the integrity of the results.
• Appropriate Stopping Criterion: Define criteria for ending the rounds (e.g., convergence of estimates, diminishing returns).

Chapter 5: Case Studies

(This section requires specific examples. The following are potential case study areas. Each would need detailed information to be a complete case study.)

• Case Study 1: Estimating the recoverable reserves of an unconventional gas reservoir using the Delphi Technique to combine geological, geophysical, and engineering expertise.
• Case Study 2: Predicting the cost of a large-scale offshore drilling project using the Delphi Technique to account for uncertainties in equipment costs, weather conditions, and regulatory approvals.
• Case Study 3: Assessing the potential impact of a new technology (e.g., carbon capture) on the oil and gas industry by leveraging the Delphi Technique to collect expert opinions on its feasibility, cost, and market adoption.
• Case Study 4: Forecasting future oil prices by incorporating geopolitical factors and economic indicators through Delphi.

Each case study would detail the expert panel, questionnaires, the iterative process, the results obtained, and a discussion of the strengths and limitations of the Delphi approach in that specific context. The analysis should include a comparison to other forecasting methods used or potentially available if applicable.