In the complex and unpredictable world of oil and gas, accurate estimation is paramount. From drilling costs to reservoir reserves, informed decisions rely on reliable figures. The Delphi Technique offers a structured approach to achieving this, by harnessing the collective wisdom of experts through a series of iterative consultations.
What is the Delphi Technique?
The Delphi Technique is a forecasting method designed to reach a consensus view by soliciting anonymous input from a panel of experts. It involves multiple rounds of questioning and feedback, enabling experts to refine their individual assessments while staying informed of the group's overall perspective.
How it Works in Oil & Gas:
Advantages in Oil & Gas:
Applications in Oil & Gas:
Conclusion:
The Delphi Technique offers a valuable tool for decision-making in the oil and gas industry. By combining expert knowledge with a structured process, it helps overcome the challenges of uncertainty and complexity, fostering more informed and accurate estimations. From exploration to production, the Delphi Technique empowers oil and gas stakeholders to make confident decisions based on the wisdom of the collective.
Instructions: Choose the best answer for each question.
1. What is the primary goal of the Delphi Technique? a) To identify the most influential expert in a field. b) To reach a consensus view among experts on a specific topic. c) To gather data for statistical analysis. d) To conduct a survey of industry trends.
The correct answer is **b) To reach a consensus view among experts on a specific topic.**
2. What is a key advantage of the Delphi Technique? a) It eliminates all potential biases in expert opinions. b) It provides a definitive and absolute answer to any question. c) It minimizes groupthink and pressure to conform. d) It guarantees the accuracy of forecasts.
The correct answer is **c) It minimizes groupthink and pressure to conform.**
3. Which of the following is NOT a typical application of the Delphi Technique in oil and gas? a) Predicting the price of oil in the next five years. b) Estimating production rates from a new oil well. c) Assessing the feasibility of a new drilling technology. d) Determining the amount of recoverable oil in a reservoir.
The correct answer is **a) Predicting the price of oil in the next five years.** While Delphi can be used to estimate cost and production related to oil, predicting market fluctuations is beyond its scope.
4. How does the Delphi Technique work? a) Experts gather in a single meeting to discuss and reach a consensus. b) Experts are interviewed individually and their responses are aggregated. c) Experts complete questionnaires in multiple rounds with feedback and revisions. d) Experts use computer simulations to generate forecasts.
The correct answer is **c) Experts complete questionnaires in multiple rounds with feedback and revisions.**
5. What is the role of anonymity in the Delphi Technique? a) To protect the identities of experts from the public. b) To ensure the confidentiality of data collected from experts. c) To allow experts to express their opinions freely without fear of judgment. d) To prevent experts from influencing each other's opinions.
The correct answer is **c) To allow experts to express their opinions freely without fear of judgment.**
Scenario: Your company is considering investing in a new offshore oil drilling project. You need to estimate the potential costs associated with drilling and setting up the rig.
Task: Imagine you are the facilitator for a Delphi Technique session to estimate drilling and rig setup costs for the project.
This is just one possible approach to the exercise, and your answers might vary depending on your specific project details.
1. Expert Identification: * Drilling Engineers: Expertise in drilling operations, equipment, and costs. * Offshore Construction Experts: Knowledge of rig setup, infrastructure, and related expenses. * Financial Analysts: Understanding of market conditions, material costs, and financial modeling.
2. Initial Questionnaire: 1. What is your estimated cost per meter drilled for this specific offshore drilling project, taking into account water depth, geological conditions, and equipment requirements? 2. Estimate the cost of installing the rig and associated infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, platforms) for this project. 3. What are the potential factors that could significantly impact the overall project cost (e.g., regulatory approvals, weather conditions, unexpected geological features)?
3. Feedback Description: After the first round, I would anonymize the responses and present a summary of the group's cost estimates, highlighting the range of estimates and any significant variations in opinion. I would also provide a brief overview of the identified potential cost drivers. This feedback would allow experts to refine their estimates based on the collective knowledge and adjust their cost projections if needed.