Reserves, Possible

Unlocking Potential: Understanding "Possible Reserves" in the Energy Sector

The world of oil and gas exploration thrives on understanding the potential of underground resources. While "proven reserves" represent the most certain amount of recoverable resources, the concept of "possible reserves" introduces a layer of uncertainty and a glimmer of hope for future extraction.

What are Possible Reserves?

Possible reserves are those unproven resources that, based on available geological and engineering data, are less likely to be recoverable than "probable reserves." This doesn't mean they are impossible, just less likely. Think of them as promising prospects that need further exploration and analysis before their full potential can be realized.

Defining the Probability:

When applying probabilistic methods, possible reserves carry a 10% probability that the actual recovered amount will equal or exceed the sum of estimated proved, probable, and possible reserves. This indicates a lower confidence level compared to probable reserves, which typically hold a 50% probability.

Types of Possible Reserves:

Possible reserves can arise from various scenarios:

• Beyond Probable Areas: Reserves that potentially exist beyond the areas classified as probable, based on geological interpretations.
• Potentially Productive Formations: Formations identified as petroleum-bearing through log and core analysis, but with uncertainty regarding their commercial productivity.
• Infill Drilling Uncertainty: Incremental reserves attributed to infill drilling, where technical uncertainties remain.
• Improved Recovery Methods Under Development: Reserves associated with improved recovery techniques, but where project feasibility and commercial viability are subject to doubt.
• Structurally Lower Areas: Reserves in areas separated from the proved area by faulting, with lower structural position.

The Importance of "Possible Reserves"

While less certain than proved or probable reserves, possible reserves hold significant value for energy companies:

• Future Development: They represent potential resources that can be pursued through further exploration, technological advancements, and economic factors.
• Resource Assessment: They contribute to a holistic understanding of the overall potential of a field or region.
• Investment Decisions: Companies use possible reserves to inform future investment decisions, planning for potential resource expansion.

The "P3" Designation:

In the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) terminology, possible reserves are often referred to as "P3," a shorthand for the third category in the Proven (P1), Probable (P2), Possible (P3) classification system. This classification helps to categorize resource potential based on increasing levels of uncertainty.

Conclusion:

Possible reserves represent a valuable tool for energy companies to assess potential resource opportunities. While carrying a higher level of uncertainty, these reserves offer the promise of unlocking future resources, driving innovation, and contributing to the ongoing quest for sustainable energy solutions.