Risk Probability

Incorrect. This refers to risk impact.

Correct! Risk probability is the likelihood of a risk event happening.

Incorrect. This refers to risk mitigation cost.

Incorrect. While frequency is related to probability, it's not the same thing. Probability is a measure of likelihood, not frequency.

Incorrect. While percentages are common, other methods are used.

Incorrect. Verbal descriptions are useful but not the only way to express probability.

Correct! All of these methods are used to express risk probability.

Incorrect. While fractions can be used, they are not the only way to express risk probability.

Incorrect. Historical data analysis is a valid method.

Incorrect. Expert opinion is a valid method.

Correct! Cost-benefit analysis helps in deciding which risk mitigation strategies are worthwhile but doesn't directly assess risk probability.

Incorrect. Probability distributions are a valid method.

Correct! Assessing risk probability allows you to focus on the most likely risks.

Incorrect. While risk probability is related to cost, it doesn't directly calculate it.

Incorrect. Eliminating all risks is often impossible. Risk management focuses on mitigating the most significant ones.

Incorrect. Risk management involves dealing with uncertainty, not predicting the future with certainty.

Incorrect. This is not based on the information provided.

Correct! Based on the research, the risk probability is 15%.

Incorrect. This is the opposite of the probability stated in the research.

Incorrect. The research provides enough information to assign a risk probability.

Here's a possible solution:

1. Assessing the Risk Probability:

• Information needed:
  • Historical data: Check with the venue about past power outages at the conference center and in the surrounding area.
  • Local utility information: Contact the local power company to inquire about the frequency of outages in the area.
  • Weather patterns: Consider the time of year and typical weather conditions. Are storms or other weather events common during the conference period?
  • Event infrastructure: Assess the venue's backup power systems and their reliability.
• Methods:
  • Historical data analysis: Compare the frequency of outages at the venue and in the area with the length of your conference.
  • Expert opinion: Consult with the venue management and local electricians for their insights on the likelihood of a power outage.
  • Qualitative assessments: Assign a verbal description like "low", "medium", or "high" based on your combined understanding of the factors above.

2. Risk Probability:

• Example: Based on the gathered information, let's assume the venue hasn't had a power outage in the last 5 years, and the local power company reports an average of 1 outage per year in the area. The conference is 3 days long. Based on this, you might assign a risk probability of "low" or 10%.

3. Explanation:

• Reasoning: The risk probability is assigned as "low" because the venue has a good history, the area doesn't experience frequent outages, and the conference is relatively short. However, the 1 outage per year in the area suggests that a complete blackout during the event isn't impossible, hence the 10% probability.