تقدير التكلفة والتحكم فيها

Buy-In

لعبة المخاطرة "الشراء" في صناعة النفط والغاز

تُعرف صناعة النفط والغاز بمشاريعها عالية المخاطر وعقودها المعقدة، ولها مفرداتها الخاصة. أحد هذه المصطلحات هو "الشراء"، وهو يشير إلى ممارسة يمكن أن تكون مربحة وخطيرة على حد سواء: تقديم عرض سعري في اقتراح أقل عمدًا من التكاليف الفعلية المقدرة للمشروع. ما هو الدافع؟ الفوز بالوظيفة.

جاذبية العطاء المنخفض:

  • تأمين العقد: في بيئة تنافسية للعطاءات، يمكن أن يكون العطاء المنخفض أداة قوية للتميز. يمكن أن يكون سحر تأمين عقد، حتى مع هامش ربح منخفض محتمل، مغريًا.
  • كسب موطئ قدم: بالنسبة للشركات الجديدة أو الأصغر، فإن الفوز بعقد، حتى مع عرض "شراء"، يمكن أن يكون خطوة حاسمة في بناء سمعتها والحصول على مشاريع أكبر في المستقبل.

المخاطر المخفية لـ "الشراء":

  • الضغط المالي: يمكن أن يؤدي التناقض بين سعر العطاء والتكلفة الفعلية للمشروع إلى ضغط مالي شديد على الشركة. يمكن أن يتحول "الشراء" بسرعة إلى عبء مالي كبير عند التقليل من تقدير التعقيدات أو التأخيرات غير المتوقعة أو أسعار المواد المتقلبة.
  • سمعة متضررة: يمكن أن يؤدي الفشل في الوفاء بعرض "شراء" إلى الإضرار بسمعة الشركة بشكل كبير، مما يجعل من الصعب تأمين عقود مستقبلية. الثقة هي الأساس في صناعة النفط والغاز، ويمكن أن يؤدي تاريخ تقديم العطاءات المنخفضة إلى إضعاف هذه الثقة.
  • المخاوف الأخلاقية: تثير ممارسات تقديم العطاءات "الشراء" مخاوف أخلاقية، خاصة عندما تتضمن المساومة على معايير السلامة أو استخدام مواد رديئة الجودة لتحقيق العطاء المنخفض.

أهمية تقديم العطاءات المسؤولة:

بدلاً من اللجوء إلى استراتيجيات "الشراء"، يجب أن تركز شركات النفط والغاز على:

  • تقدير دقيق للتكلفة: تقييم شامل لنطاق المشروع والتحديات المحتملة وظروف السوق لضمان تقديرات تكلفة واقعية.
  • التواصل الشفاف: مناقشة مفتوحة لتقلبات التكلفة المحتملة وعوامل المخاطر مع العملاء لبناء الثقة وتعزيز نهج تعاوني.
  • اقتراحات قائمة على القيمة: تسليط الضوء على الخبرة والتجربة والحلول المبتكرة التي تقدمها الشركة، بدلاً من التركيز فقط على السعر.

في الختام:

بينما قد يبدو تقديم العطاءات "الشراء" جذابًا على المدى القصير، فإنه في النهاية يشكل مخاطر كبيرة على الصحة المالية وسمعة ومكانة الشركات النفطية والغازية. إن بناء عمل مستدام وناجح يتطلب التزامًا بممارسات تقديم العطاءات المسؤولة، مع التركيز على تقدير التكلفة الدقيق والتواصل الشفاف والاقتراحات القائمة على القيمة.

Test Your Knowledge

Quiz: The Risky Game of "Buy-In" in Oil & Gas

Instructions: Choose the best answer for each question.

1. What does the term "buy-in" refer to in the oil and gas industry?

a) A company's initial investment in a new project. b) A negotiation tactic where a company agrees to a specific project scope. c) Submitting a bid that is intentionally lower than the estimated actual cost. d) A process where companies pool resources for a joint venture.

Answer

c) Submitting a bid that is intentionally lower than the estimated actual cost.

2. What is a potential benefit of a "buy-in" bid?

a) It ensures a higher profit margin. b) It can help a company secure a contract. c) It demonstrates the company's strong financial standing. d) It builds trust and transparency with clients.

Answer

b) It can help a company secure a contract.

3. What is a potential negative consequence of a "buy-in" bid?

a) Increased project efficiency. b) Stronger client relationships. c) Financial strain for the company. d) Improved project safety standards.

Answer

c) Financial strain for the company.

4. Which of the following is NOT a recommended alternative to "buy-in" bidding?

a) Accurate cost estimation. b) Transparent communication with clients. c) Focusing on the lowest possible bid price. d) Value-based proposals highlighting expertise and experience.

Answer

c) Focusing on the lowest possible bid price.

5. What is the main takeaway about "buy-in" bidding in the oil and gas industry?

a) It is a necessary practice for securing contracts. b) It can lead to long-term financial success and reputation. c) It is an ethical and responsible way to compete for projects. d) It poses significant risks to a company's financial health and reputation.

Answer

d) It poses significant risks to a company's financial health and reputation.

Exercise:

Scenario: You are the project manager of a small oil and gas company that has just received an RFP for a well drilling project. The company has limited experience and resources. You have two options:

  • Option 1: Submit a "buy-in" bid with a significantly lower price than your estimated actual cost.
  • Option 2: Submit a bid based on a realistic cost estimate, highlighting your team's expertise and innovative drilling techniques.

Task:

  1. Analyze the risks and benefits of each option, considering the company's current situation.
  2. Choose the option you would recommend and explain your reasoning.
  3. Outline a strategy for implementing your chosen option.

Exercice Correction

**Analysis:** * **Option 1 (Buy-In Bid):** * **Benefits:** High chance of winning the contract, potential to gain experience and build a reputation. * **Risks:** Significant financial strain, potential for project delays and complications, risk of damaging the company's reputation. * **Option 2 (Realistic Bid):** * **Benefits:** More financially stable, potential for greater profitability, builds trust and credibility with clients. * **Risks:** Lower chance of winning the contract if competitors offer significantly lower bids. **Recommendation:** While Option 1 seems attractive for a small company seeking exposure, the risks far outweigh the potential rewards. Option 2, focusing on a realistic bid and highlighting value, is a more responsible and sustainable approach. **Strategy for Option 2:** * **Detailed Cost Estimation:** Thoroughly assess project scope, potential challenges, and market conditions to ensure accurate cost estimation. * **Value-Based Proposal:** Highlight expertise, experience, and innovative drilling techniques that can deliver value to the client. * **Transparent Communication:** Openly discuss potential cost fluctuations and risk factors with the client to build trust. * **Focus on Quality and Efficiency:** Demonstrate commitment to delivering a high-quality project within budget and time constraints. By implementing this strategy, the company can increase its chances of securing contracts in a responsible and sustainable manner, building a strong reputation and fostering long-term financial success.

Books

  • "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: This book explores the concept of unpredictable events, which are highly relevant to the oil and gas industry where market fluctuations and unforeseen challenges are common. It can help in understanding the dangers of underestimating risks and the importance of contingency planning.
  • "Project Management for Oil and Gas: A Practical Guide" by John M. Hayes: This book offers practical insights into project management in the oil and gas industry, including cost estimation, risk assessment, and contract management. It can be valuable for understanding the complexities of oil and gas projects and the importance of accurate cost estimations.
  • "Ethics in the Oil and Gas Industry" edited by Michael S. Gazzaniga and John M. Deutch: This collection of essays delves into ethical issues in the oil and gas industry, including responsible bidding practices, environmental impact, and corporate social responsibility. It can provide context for understanding the ethical implications of "buy-in" bidding.

Articles

  • "The Dangers of Underbidding" by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE): This article discusses the risks of underbidding in the construction industry, highlighting the potential for financial strain, project delays, and reputational damage. These lessons are applicable to the oil and gas industry.
  • "The Importance of Value-Based Bidding" by the National Association of Construction Estimators (NACE): This article emphasizes the importance of focusing on value rather than solely on price when submitting bids. It offers insights into building a strong business case that highlights the benefits of a company's services and expertise.
  • "Ethics in Procurement" by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM): This article explores ethical principles in procurement, including transparency, fairness, and honesty. It can provide a framework for understanding ethical considerations in bidding practices.

Online Resources

  • "The Role of Ethics in the Oil and Gas Industry" by the Center for Business Ethics at Bentley University: This website provides resources and articles on ethical considerations in the oil and gas industry, including a section on responsible bidding practices.
  • "Procurement and Contract Management" by the Project Management Institute (PMI): This website offers resources on procurement and contract management, including best practices for cost estimation, risk assessment, and contract negotiation.
  • "Oil & Gas Industry" by the Harvard Business Review: This section of the Harvard Business Review website features articles and insights on various aspects of the oil and gas industry, including strategy, leadership, and innovation.

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